According to the International Grains Council IGC’s March data, world barley production, which was 160.5 million tons in the 2020/21 season, decreased to 146.1 million tons in the 2021/22 season, but again increased to 153.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season. However, it is estimated that there will be a significant decrease in barley production in the current 2023/24 season.
By Derya YILDIZ
Barley attracts attention as a highly nutritious grain product that is mainly used in animal nutrition and malting industry. According to the data of the International Grains Council (IGC), 7 million tons of world barley production, which was 153.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season, was used in the food industry, 104.8 million tons in feed production, 27.9 million tons in industrial areas and 12.9 million tons in other areas. In other words, about 68 percent of the world’s barley production was used as animal feed or feed ingredients. The use of barley as a feed grain is increasing, especially in locations that are not suitable for corn production. However, the production rate of barley and the resulting market price are the most important factors affecting the usage rate of this grain as feed. Feed producers or animal breeders may find it more appropriate to turn to alternative sources if barley prices exceed the prices of other grains. For example, the expectation that there will be a decrease of more than 8 million tons in production in the 2023/24 season indicates that the use of feed will also decline.
LATEST EXPECTATIONS FOR BARLEY PRODUCTION
Reports by international organizations providing information on the grain situation in the world indicate that there will be a significant decrease in barley production in the current season. For example; according to March 2024 data of International Grains Council (IGC), world barley production, which was 160.5 million tons in 2020/21 season, decreased to 146.1 million tons in 2021/22 season, and again increased to 153.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season. However, it is estimated that there will be a significant decrease in barley production in the current 2023/24 season. The IGC data indicates that global barley production will decrease by around 8 million tons to 145.7 million tons.
Likewise, the March report of the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA) confirms the decline in barley production. Announcing a global barley production amount of 145.1 million tons for the 2021/22 season and 149.6 million tons for the 2022/23 season, the USDA forecasts 142.2 million tons for the current 2023/24 season. Leaving aside the very minimal difference between the IGC and USDA reports, it is seen that the expectation of decline and the amount of decline overlap.
PROMINENT COUNTRIES IN BARLEY PRODUCTION
In world barley production, the European Union (EU) ranks first with 51.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season. It is estimated that barley production in the EU will decrease to 47.5 million tons in the 2023/24 season.
Russia follows the EU, with 21.5 million tons in 2022/23 season. It is estimated that Russia, one of the world’s major grain producers and exporters, will produce 20.5 million tons of barley in the 2023/24 season. However, there is a decrease in production expectations for the 2021/22 season. This means a decrease of 1 million tons.
Australia is the third largest barley producer in the world in the 2022/23 season with 14.1 million tons. Competing with Canada for the third place, Australia’s barley production is forecast to decrease by 3.3 million tons (10.8 million tons) in 2023/24 season.
In the 2022/23 season ranking, Australia is followed by Canada with 9.9 million tons, Turkey with 7.4 million tons, the UK with 7.3 million tons, Ukraine with 6.1 million tons, Argentina with 4.6 million tons, and the USA with 3.7 million tons. In the forecasts for the 2023/24 season, an increase is expected in Turkey, Ukraine, Argentina and the USA, while a decrease is expected in other countries. In the forecasts for the 2023/24 season, an increase is expected in Turkey, Ukraine, Argentina and the USA, while a decrease is expected in other countries.
RATIO OF PRODUCTION TO CONSUMPTION
According to IGC data, world barley consumption of 152.7 million tons in the 2022/23 season was about 1 million tons below production of 153.6 million tons. This led to an increase of about 1 million tons (24.8 million tons) in ending stocks in the 2022/23 season.
Forecasts for the 2023/24 season point to a decrease in both production and consumption. However, the expectation of a decrease in production (7.9 million tons) is much higher than the expectation of a decrease in consumption (5.5 million tons). This is reflected in the reports as a projection of 147.2 million tons of consumption against 145.7 million tons of production in the current season. According to these projections, the decrease in year-end stocks in the 2023/24 season will be limited to 1.5 million tons. The USDA data also supports the IGC data with 2-3 million tons differences.
When we look at barley consumption in the world on a national basis, it is seen that countries such as the EU, Russia, Turkey, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ukraine are among the top 10 countries in consumption as well as in production. Apart from these countries; China, Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the countries that have a remarkable share in consumption.
According to the USDA estimations, in the 2022/23 season, the EU consumed around 46.7 million tons, Russia 16.7 million tons, China 9.9 million tons, Turkey 8.9 million tons, Canada 6.6 million tons and the United Kingdom 6 million tons of barley. It is estimated that almost all of these countries will consume similar rates (with some decline) in the 2023/24 season.
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE WORLD BARLEY TRADE
According to IGC data, world barley trade, which was 32.5 million tons in the 2021/22 season, decreased to 30.7 million tons in the 2022/23 season. IGC forecasts that the trade will decrease by 1.3 million tons to 29.4 million tons in the 2023/24 season.
According to the USDA data, world barley trade, which was around 28.4 million tons in 2021/22 season, amounted to 30.3 million tons in 2022/23 season. In the 2023/24 forecast, USDA estimates that the amount of barley will be around 28.5 million tons.
The ranking of the leading countries in the international barley trade has not changed much for the last few seasons. Australia, the EU, Russia, Argentina, Canada and Ukraine take the lead in exports. Australia, which is estimated to have exported 7 million tons in the 2022/23 season, is expected to export around 6.5 million tons in the current season. In the same season, the EU is expected to export 6.6 million tons, Russia 5.4 million tons, Argentina 2.9 million tons, Canada 2.8 million tons and Ukraine 2.5 million tons of barley.
When it comes to imports, China (8.5 million tons), Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons), EU (2.1 million tons), Turkey (1.9 million tons), Iran (1.7 million tons), Libya (1.4 million tons), Jordan (1.2 million tons), Japan (1.2 million tons), Tunisia (767 thousand tons) and Morocco (734 thousand tons) are among the top 10 in the 2022/23 season.
References:
• International Grains Council (IGC), Grain Market Report, 14/03/2024, https://www.igc.int/
• United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), Grain: World Markets and Trade, March 8, 2024, https://www.fas.usda.gov/
