Most feed additives saw a considerable drop in prices towards June 2025. DL-Methionine, Vitamins B9 and B1 were notable exceptions, as the downward correction was led by Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Lysine HCl, Vitamins B2, B3, E 50% and amino acids such as Threonine, Tryptophan and Valine. The Kemiex Vitamins Index dropped -20% year-to-date but remains +31% higher than in May 2025. The Kemiex Amino Acids Index is down only -12% year-to-date, and -14% year-on-year.
By Stefan Schmidinger, Chief Economist at Kemiex
Trade barriers, tariffs and geopolitics were expected to steer the raw materials market in 2025, according to Kemiex’s outlook shared with about 420 global feed additives executives at a closed-door conference at Eurotier in November, 2024. Few foresaw such a radical shift in U.S. trade policy back then.
2024 was a year that saw a recovery for production and trade volumes, and prices for vitamins after a weak 2023. This was partly driven by producers’ efforts to maintain profitability and by supply chain disruptions following a chemical factory accident in Germany in July, affecting Vitamins E, A, precursors and carotenoids. In parallel, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant demand and front-loading of shipments to land in U.S. ports before late January and the incoming president.
FEED, ADDITIVES PRICES LOWERIN EARLY 2025
Most feed additives saw a considerable drop in prices towards June 2025. DL-Methionine, Vitamins B9 and B1 were notable exceptions, as the downward correction was led by Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Lysine HCl, Vitamins B2, B3, E 50% and amino acids such as Threonine, Tryptophan and Valine. The Kemiex Vitamins Index dropped -20% year-to-date but remains +31% higher than in May 2025. The Kemiex Amino Acids Index is down only -12% year-to-date, and -14% year-on-year.
Compound feed prices developed somewhat sideways in the first half of 2025. In Europe, feed grains are only up slightly at +3% year-on-year, and substantially lower than 2022 and early 2023. Soybean and soymeal prices in the U.S. and China show a mixed picture in the past months, but are about 15-22% lower than one year ago. Compound feed prices for pig, broiler and layer in China are slightly lower than one year ago as prices stopped their decline and bottomed in the first half of 2025.
GEOPOLITICS, TRADE RESTRICTIONS RESHAPE THE AGENDA
Since the new U.S. president took office in January, a record number of executive orders and trade policies were announced, on top of existing measures, such as the 2018 Section 301 tariffs eligible for some Chinese products, or general tariffs valid for all countries. In February and March, another combined 20% tariff was imposed on China based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) related to a lack of cooperation in the opioid crisis.
In April, the U.S. announcement of sweeping global reciprocal tariffs as high as 48% caught most market participants off guard. What followed was a tit-for-tat tariff escalation between the U.S. and China—its main supplier of essential micro ingredients—with rates up to 125%, though many pure vitamins and other ingredients were exempt. Then, in a surprisingly swift trade deal announced on May 12th, both countries agreed to cut and suspend reciprocal tariffs by 115% for 90 days.
Importers, trade lawyers, and customs face challenges declaring goods amid a tangle of rulings and uncertainty over whether certain premixes qualify as vitamins, mixed feeds, or other substances under HTS codes, drastically changing the level of applicable tariffs.
Alongside U.S. trade actions, the EU is pursuing anti-dumping cases involving Lysine, Choline chloride, and other amino acids, with similar plans in Brazil. In the EU’s Lysine case, onshore prices rose in the fourth quarter of 2024, after import registration was imposed, then surged in December when provisional duties on key Chinese producers exceeded expectations. This led to a split market, with prices varying based on whether buyers or sellers assumed the risk of retroactive duties. While the final anti-dumping ruling is still pending, markets now expect no retroactive duties and lower rates, leading to a sharp drop in Lysine prices from late April onward.
FIVE-YEAR FEED OUTLOOK MIXED
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the sector outlook has softened. OECD and other agencies have downgraded GDP and economic forecasts, worsened by restrictive trade policies and ongoing uncertainty. Some companies didn’t experience the usual volume increase in late Q2, as customers stayed cautious about buying unhedged in a falling, uncertain market.
Kemiex’s proprietary outlook model forecasts a +1.5% compound annual growth rate for global feed consumption between 2025 and 2030. Highest absolute tonnage growth is expected in Latin America, East-Central Asia, and South Asia. Highest growth rates are led by South Asia (+3.0% p.a.), Latin America (+2.5% p.a.), and Middle East (+2.4% p.a.), whereas for Western and Eastern Europe only +0.2% p.a. growth is expected, and about +1.2% in both North America and East-Central Asia.
MARKETS ATTENTIVE TO MACRO DEVELOPMENTS
Animal diseases remain a major uncertainty, as Brazil demonstrated with its first bird flu case on a commercial poultry farm, leading to trade bans from China, the EU and others and potential resulting in market shifts later this year.
Traders are watching sea freight, as a rebound in transpacific cargo following the U.S.-China trade deal is driving up rates. Even with efforts by the Suez Canal Authority and the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire, major shipping lines still haven’t shifted their routes from the Horn of Africa back to the Suez Canal — a change that could free up more container capacity.
The EUR/USD and EUR/CNY strengthened notably over the past months, supporting European importers, while USD/CNY traded range-bound and softer despite earlier warnings that China could devalue the currency to balance a fallout in trade from restrictions. National banks worldwide are balancing fears of slowing GDP growth against inflationary trade pressures, leading to a stable to slightly softer outlook for interest rates.
Among board rooms of global feed groups, a sentiment of caution prevails, somewhat holding back investment and trade decisions.
About Stefan Schmidinger
Stefan Schmidinger leads market and supply chain research at Kemiex, a Swiss-based provider of market intelligence and specialized procurement software for vitamins, feed and food additives, and direct raw materials across the agriculture, nutrition, pharmaceutical, and chemical sectors.
