Global grain supply and demand are gearing up for a new era in the 2025/26 season, with record production and consumption expected for staple grains such as wheat, corn, barley, rye, and oats. Notably, increased demand linked to the feed and food sectors is drawing attention, while trade volumes are also hinting at growth. However, certain vulnerabilities require close monitoring of the process.
By Derya Yildiz
The global grain market experienced a relatively stable period in the 2024/25 season, with production, consumption, and trade levels similar to the previous season. However, as the world looks ahead to the 2025/26 season, initial projections indicate significant changes in production and demand patterns for key grains such as wheat, corn, barley, rye, and oats. Organizations such as the International Grains Council (IGC), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have begun sharing their projections for the new season in their latest reports. The forecasts indicate that the new season is promising.
GRAIN PRODUCTION: 2024/25 SEASON AND 2025/26 OUTLOOK
According to the latest report by the International Grains Council (IGC) dated June 26, global grain production, including wheat, corn, barley, rye, and oats, is estimated to have reached approximately 2,313 million tons in the 2024/25 season. This figure indicates a slight increase of approximately 2 million tons compared to the 2023/24 season, partly due to favorable weather conditions in major production regions. Looking ahead, the 2025/26 season is projected to be a record year for global grain production. The IGC forecasts that total grain production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3% from the previous season to 2,377 million tons.
Corn, wheat, and barley account for the largest share of total grain production. According to IGC’s latest report, corn continued to be the product that contributes the most to global grain production in the 2024/25 season with a production volume of 1,225 million tons. However, its production in the 2024/25 season is forecasted to have declined by approximately 8 million tons compared to the previous season. Nevertheless, future expectations are quite optimistic. IGC forecasts for the 2025/26 season indicate that corn production will reach an all-time high of 1,276 million tons, thanks to expanded planting areas in the US, Brazil, and Ukraine, as well as favorable weather conditions. The USDA forecasts are slightly lower. According to USDA data, corn production, which stood at 1,223 million tons in the 2024/25 season, is expected to reach 1,266 million tons in the 2025/26 season.
In terms of production volume, wheat maintains its second place in the global grain market. The IGC estimates that global wheat production in the 2024/25 season increased relatively steadily compared to the previous season and was around 799 million tons. Wheat production is expected to reach a new record level of 808 million tons in the 2025/26 season thanks to higher harvests in Russia, the EU, and India. In this new season, China is expected to produce 142 million tons of wheat, the EU 137 million tons, India 118 million tons, Russia 83 million tons, and the US 52 million tons. The USDA and IGC reports are entirely consistent with each other regarding wheat production data.
The decline in global barley production has continued for the last two seasons. According to the IGC, barley production, which stood at around 145 million tons in the 2023/24 season, remained at around 144 million tons in the 2024/25 season due to a partial decline. However, barley production is expected to show a moderate increase and remain at around 148 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The USDA, which estimates barley production to be at 143 million tons for the 2024/25 season, forecasts production of around 146 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
Rye and oat production continues to follow a steady course. According to the USDA’s June 2025 report, global rye production, which reached approximately 10,6 million tons in the 2024/25 season, is expected to reach 11 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Oat production, on the other hand, is projected to decline from 22.6 million tons to 22.2 million tons during the same period.
GRAIN CONSUMPTION: 2024/25 SEASON AND 2025/26 OUTLOOK
Global grain consumption continues to increase, reflecting stable demand for food, feed, and industrial use. The IGC estimates that global grain consumption reached 2,336 million tons in the 2024/25 season and projects a record increase to 2,373 million tons for the 2025/26 season. It is estimated that a significant portion of grain consumption in the 2025/26 season, approximately 1,063 million tons, will be used for feed purposes. During the same period, food consumption is projected to be around 783 million tons, while industrial consumption is expected to be approximately 406 million tons.
Between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, wheat consumption is expected to increase from 802 million tons to 814 million tons; corn consumption is projected to rise from 1,244 million tons to 1,269 million tons; and barley consumption is anticipated to remain at nearly the same levels. The IGC reports that a large majority of wheat, approximately 570 million tons, will be used for food purposes, while wheat used for feed is expected to be limited to 151 million tons. The opposite is the case for corn consumption. It is estimated that a significant amount of corn consumption in the 2025/26 season, 750 million tons, will be used for feed, while 341 million tons will be used for industrial purposes. The industry will again take the lead in barley consumption. According to IGC data, during the 2025/26 season, 101 million tons of barley consumption will be used for feed, while 28 million tons will be used for industrial purposes (such as the beer industry).
On a national basis, China remains the world’s largest grain consumer. China is expected to consume 150 million tons of wheat and 321 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season. With 32 million tons of wheat and 325 million tons of corn consumption, the US will continue to be a major player in consumption as well as production. The EU is expected to consume 111 million tons of wheat and 78 million tons of corn, followed by India with 113 million tons of wheat and 44 million tons of corn, and Russia with 39 million tons of wheat and 11 million tons of corn.
GRAIN TRADE: 2024/25 SEASON AND 2025/26 OUTLOOK
In line with the increase in supply and demand, the volume of grain traded internationally continues to rise. According to the latest report by the IGC, the global grain trade saw a significant decline of approximately 35 million tons in the previous season. However, the 2025/26 forecast indicates that grain trade will continue to increase. According to the latest report, the volume of grain trade, which was 423 million tons in the 2024/25 season, will reach 430 million tons in the new season.
Wheat ranks first among grains traded internationally. According to the IGC, global wheat trade, which was 197 million tons in the 2024/25 season, will reach 205 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Russia, the EU, and Australia are expected to be among the world’s largest wheat exporters. In Egypt, global trade is expected to remain at 186 million tons in the 2025/26 season, as it was in the 2024/25 season. The world’s largest corn producers, the US, Brazil, and Argentina, will continue to shape global corn trade as exporters in the new season, as they have in the past. Barley trade is expected to remain at around 30 million tons, led by Australia and the EU. Stable feed demand in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to support barley trade. On the import side, high demand from countries such as China, Egypt, and Mexico continues to support global grain flows. However, ongoing risks such as geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, and volatility in input prices are expected to impact trade patterns.
IMPACT OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS
As partially shared above, the global grain market is preparing for moderate growth in both production and consumption in the 2025/26 season.
Record wheat and corn harvests are expected to meet high demand, particularly from the feed and food sectors. While a slight increase in overall trade volume is anticipated, the global grain market remains sensitive to potential supply chain disruptions and climate uncertainties.
Use of feed continues to play a central role in driving demand, particularly for corn and barley. As the new season approaches, it will be crucial for stakeholders across the grain value chain to closely monitor crop development, policy changes, and trade dynamics.
