INTERVIEW FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE January 2026 61 Should just one of those three scenarios occur in 2026, it is possible we will see price volatility increase to the upside. Even more so should a combination of the three occur. Volatility has become a structural feature rather than a temporary spike. What are the main volatility triggers Hedgepoint is tracking for 2026 in terms of weather models, global stocks, or policy decisions, and how do you suggest feed manufacturers prepare for them? For weather, La Niña in South America over January and February will be the metric. This time period is the key time for Brazil Soybeans, Argentina Corn and Soybeans, and the start of the Brazil Safrinha crop planting. Turning to global stocks and trade – it is interesting to note that China has maintained Soybean reserves of around 44mmt the past few years. Historically, China’s ending stocks would fluctuate along with demand and pricing. It now appears that the 44mmt level is a strategic target from the Chinese government. At normal consumption, this represents about three months of normal Chinese crush demand. With a possible US – China Trade Soybean thaw appearing, it will be interesting to see if new US soybean supply is allocated to Chinese Crush demand directly or put directly into the state soybean reserve. Should China buy US Soybeans for stockpiling purposes, this will result in less global soybeans available for global crush. Another item of note for feed manufacturers in 2026 for those that manufacture soybean meal, will be the livestock herd size in the United States. US Beef prices remain close to all time highs, and the US consumer is responding with a demand shift to more affordable proteins - poultry and pork. If this trend continues in 2026, feed manufacturers may well enjoy strong demand for soybean meal for poultry and pork feeders. What risk-management strategies or hedging tools do you consider essential for feed and livestock companies? How can they better integrate data, forecasting models and crosscommodity insights to stabilize costs in 2026? We are seeing a new interest and demand for weather-based risk management tools. Historically, Wet Jul-Sep Jan-May JunOct Nov-Mar Oct-Dec Feb-Jun Nov-Jan Nov-Apr Jun-Dec Sep-Jan May-Feb Sep-Mar Jun-Apr Dec-Mar Apr-Jun Dec-Mar Oct-Apr Jul-Oct Jun-Sep Jun-Mar Jun-Sep Aug-Dec Aug-Oct Aug-Dec Nov-Apr Dry Rainfall pattern – La Niña Source: Columbia Climate School For more information on Niño and la Niña: http://iri.columbia.edu/enso
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