INTERVIEW 60 FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE January 2026 The region that has the most concerning potential for a weather driven supply disruption in 2026 is the critical global export countries of Brazil and Argentina. The world is facing its 5th La Niña in six years, which may stress crop development in South America. La Niña results in a dryer and warmer trend in major growing regions of South America. With South American farmers beginning their soybean new crop, the market will watch weather trends and crop development very closely. Should South America have a weather event that impacts crop production, the likely benefactor would be the United States which has burdensome stocks from 2025’s harvest and the ability to meet dislocated export demand should South America experience a production shortage. Feed raw materials like corn, soybean meal, and wheat saw significant price swings in 2024–2025. Based on your modelling and market signals, what are Hedgepoint’s expectations for supply– demand balances, market trends and price movements in key feed ingredients for 2026? It all comes down to Brazil and Argentina’s 2026 crop. Hedgepoint Market Intelligence analyst team estimates, with normal weather and trend line yields, Brazil may have a record Soybean crop of 178 mmt. Should that crop materialize without a negative impact from La Niña, the trend of large global crops keeping prices contained will likely continue in the short term. There are several risks to this assumption however: 1. A South American weather event, as previously mentioned 2. US-China trade deal that results in a large increase in China demand for US Agriculture products 3. Government mandated biodiesel programs that result in large increase of US domestic soybean crush 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Argentina Brazil Ukraine United States Others 24/25 10% 28% 2% 56% 4% 25/26 11% 24% 1% 60% 4% 23/24 11% 26% 2% 59% 3% 22/23 9% 31% 56% 2% 2% 12/13 13% 36% 42% 8% 1% 17/18 9% 50% 1% 38% 2% 18/19 10% 32% 50% 6% 2% 19/20 9% 28% 56% 6% 2% 20/21 9% 37% 3% 49% 1% 21/22 8% 38% 2% 51% 1% 11/12 11% 40% 39% 8% 1% 13/14 11% 42% 7% 40% 1% 14/15 10% 40% 8% 40% 2% 15/16 10% 41% 7% 40% 2% 16/17 11% 43% 5% 40% 2% 10/11 11% 45% 1% 33% 10% Soybean Share of World Exports (%) Source: USDA Photo: Freepik
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