INTERVIEW FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE January 2026 59 stock feeding. Our role is to offer a menu of custom strategies to fit the client’s unique profile and needs. Looking at 2026, how do you assess the overall outlook for global agriculture, particularly in terms of production trends, trade flows and major macroeconomic pressures? Let’s start with the financial health of the global farmer - where the food supply chain ultimately starts. The farmer is facing a perfect storm of crises – after years of large global crop production, the sale price grains and oilseeds have been pressured. Compounding this revenue problem, the farmer has not been immune to inflation pressure. Costs have gone up: interest rates on loans, seed, chemical inputs, fertilizer, and transportation costs have all increased. The result is margin compression and the potential that the farmer in 2026 may be forced to invest and produce less. From a global trade flow standpoint, over the past decade, the United States has lost global export market share to South America. With a potential record soybean crop being planted in Brazil and increased US domestic consumption of soybean oil for biodiesel, South America will likely continue to be the critical supply source for global food next year. However, if there is a weather event in South America in 2026, this trend may be upended, as the US will be one of the few sources with ample stocks from 2025. The United Nations World Food Program projects 318 million people will face acute hunger in 2026- double pre-pandemic levels. This is a manmade famine, not the result of a crop production shortfall, but rather military conflict and associated supply disruptions. Conflicts in Africa, the Black Sea, Red Sea, and Middle East all have served to disrupt the distribution of food. As you mentioned, weather extremes, logistics disruptions and geopolitical tensions are reshaping commodity markets. How do you expect these factors to influence global grain and oilseed availability in 2026, and which regions do you see as the most vulnerable or resilient? Climate is becoming increasingly volatile, violent, and unpredictable. Despite that, the world’s recent crop cycles have been rather ample. Arguably, the last major supply disruption was in 2022 during the start of Ukraine War. At some point, perhaps in 2026 or perhaps later, the world will have to contend with a climate driven crop production disruption that we have not seen in recent crop cycles. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Argentina Brazil Ukraine United States Others 17% 18% 33% 13% 21% 15% 11/12 21% 19% 13% 26% 20% 12/13 19% 37% 15% 16% 13% 13/14 16% 33% 14% 24% 13% 14/15 17% 40% 14% 12% 18% 15/16 15% 36% 13% 20% 16% 16/17 15% 41% 12% 16% 15% 17/18 13% 29% 17% 22% 20% 18/19 16% 26% 17% 20% 21% 19/20 15% 38% 13% 11% 22% 20/21 16% 30% 13% 23% 17% 21/22 18% 23% 15% 30% 14% 22/23 16% 30% 15% 20% 19% 23/24 13% 39% 11% 22% 16% 24/25 10% 40% 11% 21% 18% 25/26 10/11 51% 5% 9% 18% Corn Share of World Exports (%) Source: USDA
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTUxNjkxNQ==