TRADE TIDES FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE June 2025 71 zil. In the EU’s Lysine case, onshore prices rose in the fourth quarter of 2024, after import registration was imposed, then surged in December when provisional duties on key Chinese producers exceeded expectations. This led to a split market, with prices varying based on whether buyers or sellers assumed the risk of retroactive duties. While the final anti-dumping ruling is still pending, markets now expect no retroactive duties and lower rates, leading to a sharp drop in Lysine prices from late April onward. FIVE-YEAR FEED OUTLOOK MIXED Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the sector outlook has softened. OECD and other agencies have downgraded GDP and economic forecasts, worsened by restrictive trade policies and ongoing uncertainty. Some companies didn’t experience the usual volume increase in late Q2, as customers stayed cautious about buying unhedged in a falling, uncertain market. Kemiex’s proprietary outlook model forecasts a +1.5% compound annual growth rate for global feed consumption between 2025 and 2030. Highest absolute tonnage growth is expected in Latin America, East-Central Asia, and South Asia. Highest growth rates are led by South Asia (+3.0% p.a.), Latin America (+2.5% p.a.), and Middle East (+2.4% p.a.), whereas for Western and Eastern Europe only +0.2% p.a. growth is expected, and about +1.2% in both North America and East-Central Asia. MARKETS ATTENTIVE TO MACRO DEVELOPMENTS Animal diseases remain a major uncertainty, as Brazil demonstrated with its first bird flu case on a commercial poultry farm, leading to trade bans from China, the EU and others and potential resulting in market shifts later this year. Traders are watching sea freight, as a rebound in transpacific cargo following the U.S.-China trade deal is driving up rates. Even with efforts by the Suez Canal Authority and the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire, major shipping lines still haven't shifted their routes from the Horn of Africa back to the Suez Canal — a change that could free up more container capacity. The EUR/USD and EUR/CNY strengthened notably over the past months, supporting European importers, while USD/CNY traded range-bound and softer despite earlier warnings that China could devalue the currency to balance a fallout in trade from restrictions. National banks worldwide are balancing fears of slowing GDP growth against inflationary trade pressures, leading to a stable to slightly softer outlook for interest rates. Among board rooms of global feed groups, a sentiment of caution prevails, somewhat holding back investment and trade decisions. Kemiex Feed Consumption Outlook 2025-30 (CAGR) South Asia Oceania Latin America Middle East Africa Global North America East/Central Asia Europe 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% Source: Kemiex About Stefan Schmidinger Stefan Schmidinger leads market and supply chain research at Kemiex, a Swiss-based provider of market intelligence and specialized procurement software for vitamins, feed and food additives, and direct raw materials across the agriculture, nutrition, pharmaceutical, and chemical sectors.
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