Feed & Additive Magazine Issue 3 April 2021

NEWS 10 FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE April 2021 ASF: Ongoing change in global pork markets in 2021 Rabobank published “African Swine Fever: A Global Update - Ongoing Change in Global Pork Markets in 2021” report in March. The report highlights the impacts of ASF on the global pig trade and the position of countries. A ccording to the report; Af- rican swine fever is actively influencing pork markets around the world, creating many areas of uncertainty – mainly in China, but also in Germany – which will not be resolved quickly. The im- plications of ASF for world pork trade are a major swing factor in global pork markets. ASF INFLUENCE ON PORK MARKETS China is the most obvious coun- try where ASF continues to have a major influence. Its spread over winter highlights the challenges of managing this disease, and it has complicated the picture of China’s pork supply and demand. The on- going pressure from ASF’s spread in Germany is also significant and has implications for other parts of Europe as well. While progress has been made in containing the dis- ease, more work is needed. UNCERTAINTY ASF is creating several major areas of uncertainty, including China’s herd numbers and the outlook for 2021, especially for the sow population, as well as China’s pork production and pork prices. Moreover, the way high feed costs will affect produc- tion costs during 2021 is difficult to assess. Further obscuring the outlook are how quickly ASF will be controlled in Germany and when trade bans will be (partial- ly) lifted. IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD PORK TRADE China’s booming import demand for pork and other species was a ma- jor demand driver in global animal protein markets in 2020, but Chi- na’s pork imports are expected to decline in 2021. At the same time, we see all exporting countries look- ing to maintain trade with China. Price will be one major factor that determines which countries will maintain high pork trade flows to China in 2021, along with availabil- ity and geopolitical considerations. Cargill expands soy processing operations in U.S. Cargill is investing significantly in its U.S. soy pro- cessing operations, with modernization and expansion projects across its network of crush facilities in seven states. Once completed, the company estimates the $475 million in investments will improve operational efficiencies, while also increasing capacity—by 10% in one location and doubling capacity in another, to bet- ter meet growing demand for U.S. soy products. With a focus on innovation, the investments not only strengthen Cargill's U.S. crush footprint, but also give customers quicker access to feedstocks. Improvements will include faster unloading of oil- seeds and loading of products, increased capacity which provides additional market opportunities, and better overall logistics, safety and ease of doing business.