MARKET REPORT FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE April 2024 79 Forecasts for the 2023/24 season point to a decrease in both production and consumption. However, the expectation of a decrease in production (7.9 million tons) is much higher than the expectation of a decrease in consumption (5.5 million tons). This is reflected in the reports as a projection of 147.2 million tons of consumption against 145.7 million tons of production in the current season. According to these projections, the decrease in yearend stocks in the 2023/24 season will be limited to 1.5 million tons. The USDA data also supports the IGC data with 2-3 million tons differences. When we look at barley consumption in the world on a national basis, it is seen that countries such as the EU, Russia, Turkey, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ukraine are among the top 10 countries in consumption as well as in production. Apart from these countries; China, Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the countries that have a remarkable share in consumption. According to the USDA estimations, in the 2022/23 season, the EU consumed around 46.7 million tons, Russia 16.7 million tons, China 9.9 million tons, Turkey 8.9 million tons, Canada 6.6 million tons and the United Kingdom 6 million tons of barley. It is estimated that almost all of these countries will consume similar rates (with some decline) in the 2023/24 season. HIGHLIGHTS IN THE WORLD BARLEY TRADE According to IGC data, world barley trade, which was 32.5 million tons in the 2021/22 season, decreased to 30.7 million tons in the 2022/23 season. IGC forecasts that the trade will decrease by 1.3 million tons to 29.4 million tons in the 2023/24 season. According to the USDA data, world barley trade, which was around 28.4 million tons in 2021/22 season, amounted to 30.3 million tons in 2022/23 season. In the 2023/24 forecast, USDA estimates that the amount of barley will be around 28.5 million tons. The ranking of the leading countries in the international barley trade has not changed much for the last few seasons. Australia, the EU, Russia, Argentina, Canada and Ukraine take the lead in exports. Australia, which is estimated to have exported 7 million tons in the 2022/23 season, is expected to export around 6.5 million tons in the current season. In the same season, the EU is expected to export 6.6 million tons, Russia 5.4 million tons, Argentina 2.9 million tons, Canada 2.8 million tons and Ukraine 2.5 million tons of barley. When it comes to imports, China (8.5 million tons), Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons), EU (2.1 million tons), Turkey (1.9 million tons), Iran (1.7 million tons), Libya (1.4 million tons), Jordan (1.2 million tons), Japan (1.2 million tons), Tunisia (767 thousand tons) and Morocco (734 thousand tons) are among the top 10 in the 2022/23 season. References: • International Grains Council (IGC), Grain Market Report, 14/03/2024, https://www.igc.int/ • United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), Grain: World Markets and Trade, March 8, 2024, https://www.fas.usda.gov/
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