MARKET REPORT 84 FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE March 2024 (USDA) supports the expectation of a decrease in wheat production. Estimating 789 million tons for the 2022/23 season, the USDA forecasts 785 million tons for the 2023/24 season. Both amounts announced by the USDA are only 4 million tons lower than the IGC's estimates. PROMINENT COUNTRIES IN WHEAT PRODUCTION China ranks first in world wheat production in the 2022/23 season with 137,7 million tons. It is predicted that this amount is forecasted to decrease to 136.5 million tons in the 2023/24 season. The European Union (EU) follows China with 134.1 million tons in the 2022/23 season. It is estimated that the production in the EU decreased to 134 million tons in the 2023/24 season. India is the third-largest wheat producer in the world with 104 million tons. Production in the country is estimated to increase 110,5 million tons in the current 2023/24 season. India is followed by Russia with 92 million tons, the USA with 44,8 million tons, Australia with 40,5 million tons, Canada with 34,3 million tons, Pakistan with 26,4 million tons and Ukraine with 21,5 million tons in the ranking of the 2022/23 season. In the 2023/24 projection for these countries, a decrease is foreseen in Russia, Canada, and Australia, and partial production increases (ranging between 1 and 4 million tons) in other countries. RATIO OF PRODUCTION TO CONSUMPTION According to the IGC data, world wheat consumption, which was 784 million tons in the 2021/22 season, reached 795 million tons in the 2022/23 season. While the production in the 2021/22 season was not at a level to meet the consumption amount, this situation was reversed thanks to the record production increase in the 2022/23 season. However, the difference between production and consumption continues to hover at very low levels. The projected consumption for the 2023/24 season is 803 million tons. This is 5 million tons above the projected production of 788 million tons. When we look at the world wheat consumption on a country basis, it is seen that countries such as China, India, the EU, Russia, the USA, and Pakistan rank at the top in consumption as well as in production. According to the USDA estimates, wheat consumption was 148 million tons in China, 108,6 million tons in India, 108 million tons in the EU, 42,2 million tons in Russia, 30,4 million tons in the USA, and 29,2 million tons in Pakistan in the 2022/23 season. It is predicted that these countries will consume similar rates in the 2023/24 season. In world wheat consumption, Egypt and Iran are among the top 10 countries that are not at the top of the production list but consume the most wheat. It is predicted that Egypt will consume approximately 21 million tons of wheat in the 2023/24 season, while Iran will consume approximately 18 million tons of wheat. HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD WHEAT TRADE According to the IGC report, the world wheat trade, which was 191 million tons in the 2020/21 season, reached 198 million tons in the 2021/22 season. The IGC estimates that the trade reached 208 million tons in the 2022/23 season. In the 2023/24 projection, the amount of wheat subject to world trade is forecast to decline to 200 million tons with a decrease of 8 million tons. Wheat Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks 2020/21 773 191 773 277 11.01 15.02 2023/24 forecast 2021/22 780 198 784 272 2022/23 est. 803 208 795 280 788 198 804 266 788 200 803 265 Source: IGC - million tons
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