SPECIAL STORY 60 FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE August 2023 According to Rabobank’s latest aquaculture report, salmon prices have largely returned to more normal levels after 2022’s peak, but remain relatively high. Soft demand driven by inflation in the US and Europe continues, with salmon appearing better placed than shrimp. The slump in shrimp demand may even get worse in the second half of 2023 as Chinese demand moderates. SALMON TO REMAIN HIGHLY PROFITABLE In the third quarter, salmon supply will return to growth after nearly two years of contraction. According to Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Seafood Specialist at Rabobank, “The salmon industry, in terms of profitability, had one of the best periods ever recorded in the first half of 2023, driven by record prices. The industry will remain highly profitable in the second half of 2023 despite more normalized prices, as salmon is currently competitively priced relative to alternatives.” Still, there are challenges. Unfortunately for Norwegian producers, a 25% resource tax was voted into law and will impact the industry until at least 2025, when an election could bring a new government coalition and policy. “Another possible challenge for the industry in the second half of 2023 will be a shortage of sustainably certified fish meal and fish oil,” said Nikolik. “Increased use of vegetable oils and novel alternatives With demand softening and El Niño driving fish meal prices higher, the second half of 2023 is expected to be the most challenging period for global aquaculture since the peak of the pandemic in 2020, according to Rabobank’s aquaculture report. RABOBANK: SOFT DEMAND AND EL NIÑO TO CHALLENGE AQUACULTURE INDUSTRY
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