MARKET REPORT FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE February 2021 67 HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD CORN TRADE According to the IGC report, the world corn trade, which was 165 million tons in the 2018/19 season, reached 174 million tons in the 2019/20 season. IGC expects the trade volume to increase to 183 million tons in the 2020/21 season. The USDA’s January report draws a similar picture and predicts that the trade volume, which was 175 million tons in the 2019/20 season, will be around 181 million tons in the 2020/21 season. The ranking of the leading countries in international corn trade did not change much compared to previous years. The USA, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine are still the leaders in exports. The USA, which exported 46.9 million tons last season, is expected to reach a record increase (64 million tons) in the next season. In the same period, it is predicted that Brazil will export 40 million tons, Argentina will export 31.5 million tons and Ukraine will export 24 million tons. But, on the import side, the European Union and countries such as China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Egypt stand out. Although it ranks first in world corn imports, a slight decrease is expected in the import demand of the European Union. On the other hand, the rising demand in China changed the balances in the whole maize market. It is predicted that China, which imported between 4 and 8 million tons in previous seasons, will almost double this amount (17.5 million tons) in the 2020/21 season. This demand is shown as the most important reason for the record export expectation in the USA. Another reason for the high expectation in the USA is the declining production and export volumes of Ukraine. In addition, in Argentina, which is an important exporter, exports were suspended temporarily in order to reduce the food inflation in the country, and the export amount was bound to a quota with a later decision. However, this confusion and uncertainty in the country continues to affect the market. PROGRESS OF CORN PRICES AROUND THE WORLD Since the WASDE report published in December, offers for corn exports have increased. According to the USDA report, this increase was driven by rising soy prices in South Africa and concerns about the supply process. Argentina increased its corn offer price by $27/ton to $254, while Brazil increased its offer price by $29/ ton to $264, due to ongoing supply problems. Due to the high demand from China, prices in the Black Sea reached $240 with an increase of 22 dollars/ton. Among the major exporters, the lowest price is from the US, with $240. However, prices increased by $22/ton there as well. In short, since the beginning of January, the prices of exporters have changed between $240 and $260/ ton. This is stated to be the highest since the summer of 2013. References: • International Grains Council (IGC), Grain Market Report, 14/01/2021, https://www.igc.int/ • United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), Grain: World Markets and Trade Report, January 12, 2021, https://www.fas.usda.gov/ • Animal feed resources information system, Feedipedia,
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