ISSUE FOCUS 26 FEED & ADDITIVE MAGAZINE August 2022 "Are feed and livestock producers powerless when managing the potential risks from mycotoxins when using lower-quality grains or byproducts during the coming feeding season? They do not have to be, and although it is still pretty much impossible to eliminate mycotoxins from the animal feed supply chain, some steps can be taken — from when the crop is planted all the way through to the delivery of the feed to animals — that can help to mitigate the mycotoxin challenge." In a recent Feed Strategy article by Dr. Ioannis Mavromichalis, it was noted that some feed industry commentators suggest that corn could be heading for $10 per bushel ($390 per tonne). The USDA’s official forecast projects a price of $6.75 per bushel for 2022–2023, while $4.00 per bushel was seen as quite a high only recently. Across all key grains, prices remain at a stubbornly high level. For crop producers, these elevated prices are more than welcome, having suffered the effects of dramatic inflation and paying record high prices for key inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and fuel. However, feed and livestock producers using these ingredients to formulate animal diets are hoping for some stability to return to commodity markets. Despite higher output prices for milk and meat compensating for some of the higher input costs, margins continue to be squeezed tighter and tighter in livestock businesses across the globe. WHAT IS BEHIND THE RECENT GRAIN PRICE INCREASES? What is driving these higher grain prices? If ever there was a time to use the term perfect storm, it feels very appropriate right now. The conflict in Ukraine is undoubtedly the leading contributor to the tighter grain stocks, or at least the expectation that this is creating amongst traders for harvest 2022 output. Over the past 10 years, Ukraine has grown in importance as a grain exporter, rising to third in wheat and fourth in corn. Reduced planting and significant disruptions to exports mean a large dent is being put in the availability of global grain stocks and comes on the back of a year that already saw acute tightness of supply and higher than average commodity prices. If the markets were hoping that other regions could make up some of the Ukrainian shortfall, they are unfortunately realising that this does not look like it will be the case. The USDA 2022–23 corn projection is expected to be 4.35% down on the previous year. Europe is becoming somewhat of a heatwave hotspot, with subsequent impacts on crop output. The FAO predicts that wheat production across the EU will be down by 10%, with France being severely hit, losing 20% of standard tonnage. In Northern Italy, a large corn-growing region, a state of emergency has been declared due to drought, with some farmers already MANAGING THE MYCOTOXIN RISK IN LOWER QUALITY INGREDIENTS Martin Minchin Marketing Manager Alltech Mycotoxin Management
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